Welcome to the first musing for 2020. We find ourselves in new territory in the UK with a government that has a strong mandate for the first time in many years which, regardless of our political leanings, has already had a positive effect on the UK market. Last Thursday the FTSE 100 rose by 61 points. “So what?” you might say. Well according to an article in the Sunday Times in 17 of the last 20 years the markets’ direction for the year matched the movement on the first day of trading. Should this year follow suit we should see the FTSE100 trading higher in December than it is today. Of course, this could be a warning if the FTSE100 went into reverse on the first day of trading.
I started writing this before the Trump sent the missiles which killed Qasem Soleimani. To be honest I have no idea what the outcome of this action is likely to be on markets, especially in the USA. The shame is that the positive news about the USA’s trade talks with China had had such a positive impact. Some cynics have suggested that Mr Trump was pandering to his base in the USA with this action to show that he is a strong leader. I would hope that this was not the case.
Despite the Trump I feel that this year will be a good one for our portfolios and look forward to reporting positive growth as the year goes on.
We are preparing the quarterly report for quarter four 2019 and hope to have these with you this week. As usual I will be monitoring our funds and trying to keep ahead of the game on your behalf. To this end I am investing in additional software to enhance the level of analysis I have available.
I will start this year’s weekly market numbers from next week when the Christmas/ New Year silliness is over, and the results will be more realistic.