I have to say that I have had a fairly trauma free lock down in that although I have not been able to meet with my clients, being able to communicate via zoom and things such as Monday Musings I have managed to maintain a good level of communication. Our office will be Covid proofed from the 30th, assuming the screens are installed on time, and although we will be open shorter hours- 9am -3pm- I and the team look forward to welcoming you for a cup of tea or coffee in our meeting room.
Once again there are warning signs for the Commercial Property sector with forecasts that less than 20% of retailers are expected to pay their full rent next week. As you can imagine this has led to the shares in some of the UKs biggest landlords dropping like stones. You will recall that we came out of property funds towards the end of last year just in time to avoid the problems.
Despite all that has happened in the last week the markets performed quite well showing positive numbers across all asset areas. Although the UK’s national debt is now above 100% of national output, with public sector borrowing at the highest level since 1993, most pundits think that Mr Sunak is pursuing the right path with his measures to support the economy, not least because the cost of servicing the public debt is historically low. David Smith has written an interesting piece in the Sunday Times which argues among other things that we might see a V shaped recovery; the economy picking up quarter by quarter. If this were to happen it would indeed be a good outcome. Irwin Stelzer who comments on the US economy makes the point that until the consumer gets out there spending money in retail outlets ranging from pubs and restaurants to clothes retailers the USAs economy is unlikely to show an ongoing recovery. Like the UK it will depend on the various support measures that are in place to keep people in jobs.
You may have noticed that the Trumper has had a difficult weekend with comments from erstwhile supporters that somewhat diminish his version of his international diplomacy successes. I would hope that this might reign in some of his gung-ho instincts as far as trade wars etc are concerned.
So, to the markets on the next page
|FTSE 100||6292||Up 3.07%|
|Dow Jones||25871||Up 1.04%|
|Hang Seng||24643||Up 1.41%|
|02.01.2020||Year to Date|